What should federations and leagues do when it comes to handling covid-19?

T

he world it seems has been put on hold with the spread of COVID-19 to almost every country around the world. The coronavirus, which started it's spread in China is more 10-30x more deadly than the average flu virus. Regular life has been shut down around the world from schools to bars to sporting events (which includes soccer). The scary part about this situation is that there is no cure to the virus and we don't know if this virus is seasonal or permanent.

Given that the situation is ever fluid and changing week-to-week. It is important to understand that the soccer leagues we love so much could be shut down from 3-6 months at the bare minimum and that social distancing and self-quarantining are the sacrifices we must take to save lives and get back to normalizing our regular social lives again.

The unique part about this situation is that each league and country have their own agendas and are in different parts of their given season. There are many temporary solutions to the halting of soccer leagues around the world due to the coronavirus.

For the leagues that have just started like MLS, the Chinese Super League, J League, K League, Thai League, Liga 1 Indonesia, Malaysia Super League, & V League (just to name a few), the 2020 season has time to recover. China has already started to control the virus and looks to restart in April meanwhile Japan and South Korea have done a solid job of containing it. I expect East Asia to contain the virus and ultimately these leagues to begin again within the next month. For MLS and Liga MX, given the factors that currently make up these given countries I wouldn't be at all surprised if these leagues have shortened seasons given that the virus has just started to spread in the USA and Mexico. The knockout stages of the CCL can be moved back toward the back end of the year, which is a plus though the Caribbean Championship and CONCACAF League need to be completed by the end of the year so we can set next year's CCL sixteen team field.

Other West Asian leagues, North African leagues, and the A League must consider playing games behind closed doors given that most are at the end of their seasons and the virus has just begun to spread in those given areas of the world. Given the complications of multiple leagues starting in different parts of the season in CAF and AFC, the cancellation of their given Champions Leagues could be possible for the 2020 season. For the AFC Champions League they have already moved the beginning of the season back into the summer though this might not even be enough time. For the CAF Champions League its a bit more precarious with the end of the 2020 Champions League already here and the beginning of the 2020-2021 season starting in August. Both confederations must move fast given the spread of the virus in their region of the world.

For Europe, it's a bit more complicated. For most of the leagues in UEFA, we are in a run in part of the season. Championships are being handed out, European places for next season are being decided, & pro/rel races are at their peak. Given the recent shutdowns of Italy and Spain, expect 2-3 months at the bare minimum before the country can slowly get back to normal life. This ultimately means that domestic leagues could potentially finish in the summer along with the Champions League and Europa League (which could be shortened or played in a neutral venue).

For the Nordic Leagues and East Asian leagues like Kazakhstan and Norway, they can move the start of their seasons back a few months to accommodate the spread of the virus. At the worst case scenario, some countries could call their season null and void and stop relegation for this season. The German Bundesliga has already contemplated scrapping relegation for this season and promoting 4 of its top 2 Bundesliga clubs up for 2020-2021. European places will still be handed out for domestic competitions as long as federations decide who is in the Champions League and Europa League by July 1st.

This means that Euro 2020 will most likely be moved to 2021 to make way for the end of the 2019-20 Champions League/Europa League season. This could potentially get in the way of the expanded 24-team 2021 FIFA Club World Cup expected to be hosted in China next summer.

As it comes to pro-rel, finances are at stake for clubs and most clubs around the world live week-to-week and are dependent on match day revenue. So the potential of relegating clubs who already cash stripped in a pandemic could potentially lead to lawsuits against football federations as the season is cut short. Contracts for players also still need to be paid and payments from federations need to be paid to clubs who depend on that money.

Federations must be careful with this, though each will go their own path. The long term financial effects of the virus on smaller clubs in Europe could be detrimental especially if the global economy falls into recession (which it most likely will in the short term from the virus). Declaring the season null and void or league reconstruction for the smaller leagues could potentially be the best thing to do in the short term. There are no simple answers with each having their own potential legal ramifications if the domestic leagues cannot be finished over the summer.

South America has already started playing their games behind closed doors in countries like Bolivia, Argentina, & Brazil. The Copa Libertadores and Sudamericana can be moved back and most countries can potentially do a shortened season or expand the league if the spread gets worse in the short term.

2022 World Cup qualifiers planned for the end of March have already been postponed for CONMEBOL & AFC, expect these qualifying dates to be made up in 2021 given the extra window national teams have due to the 2022 World Cup in Qatar will be hosted in the winter instead of the summer.

Ultimately for soccer fans, it is going to be a brutal 3-6 months of little to no soccer at all. At best, the CSL, J League, K League, and a few other others will start back up in one month. For most of Europe, the season is probably done.

Most likely expect soccer to resume in most of the world by August. This virus is a critical global pandemic and addressing it now through social distancing to stop the spread is the way to go in the short term. There are lives at stake and the game can wait.